|2007 could be hottest year on record|
|Written by Chris Perver|
|Thursday, 04 January 2007 17:00|
|The UK Met Office is predicting that 2007 could be the hottest year since records began, matching if not exceeding temperatures reached in 1998. They are expecting the average global temperature to rise around half a degree Celsius this year. The Met Office have also published figures showing that 2006 was the hottest year in the UK since records began. Last year Hyde Park in London was turned into a desert and the soles on people's shoes melted to the pavement because of the extreme heat, reaching from what I remember over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. |
Quote: ""We have two methods of forecasting the effect of the El Nino. One is a statistical method based on two patterns of sea surface temperatures in the El Nino region, and the other is a complex mathematical model." He said that the forecast was then fine-tuned by looking back over data from the previous 50 years. "We have actually run this forecast three times, updating it every month... and it is completely stable." The 60% probability that 2007 would set a new record meant that it "was more likely than not", he concluded. The Hadley Centre has been issuing the annual forecast for the past seven years and says it has just a 0.06C margin of error.
Where I live we have had an extended summer and an unusually warm winter - around 10-12 degrees in the middle of December. A few weeks ago we experienced bitter cold snaps and torrential rain. The extra warm weather is confusing local wildlife, with Spring flowers blooming in October and November, only to be killed off by harsh winter weather.
Quote: "The weather really is going haywire. Britain's gardeners are reporting the first signs of a "phantom spring" in the midst of one of the warmest Octobers on record. Shoots of spring flowers are pushing out of the soil in England and in the even-warmer climes of the Channel Islands primroses and dog violets are blooming. Botany experts say it is likely that lilac and apple trees will be blossoming next month. Tony Kirkham, head of the arboretum at Kew Gardens, southwest London, said: "This kind of weather is very confusing for plants. Some trees will blossom as a last-minute fling before the winter and some flowers come up because they are getting such mixed messages from the weather. It makes it look like spring has come early."